Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Iowa Caucuses
Time for a few quick prognostications before the presidential selection process officially starts Thursday in Iowa. Needless to say that is still New Year's Day, and this has to be penned, underlines how early the primaries are starting. There is no reasonable justification for this primary schedule. It hardly seems possible that this is the best way to select presidential candidates.
But enough ranting, without further adieu let's get to the predictions.
The Clarion believes the winner on the Republican side of Iowa caucuses will finish third in the New Hampshire primary behind John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Iowa will go to either former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, or former Massachusetts governor, and son of a governor, Mitt Romney.
The Democratic side of the Iowa caucus race is too close to call. It is possible that either one term Senator, Barack Obama or John Edwards, might beat the front runner Hillary Clinton. The Clarion thinks it unlikely that either of these men, even if they win Iowa, will be able to use it as a springboard to capture the Democratic nomination. The Clarion would be genuinely shocked if any noise is made in Iowa by the other worthy, but largely ignored Democratic contenders, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd.
Labels: 2008's President, Politics, Predictions
Comments:
As the results are coming I am standing by my analysis.
It is not a shock to see Obama win. It is great that turnout is so high. The Democrats smashed the previous turnout record. Obama's win in a neighboring midwestern state does not guarantee the nomination by any stretch. If he can follow it up in New Hampshire, then the story would change.
As for the Republican's Huckabee's win means even less. He won't finish higher than third in New Hampshire and is no sure bet to win anywhere else. Giuliani and McCain are waiting in the wings.
It is not a shock to see Obama win. It is great that turnout is so high. The Democrats smashed the previous turnout record. Obama's win in a neighboring midwestern state does not guarantee the nomination by any stretch. If he can follow it up in New Hampshire, then the story would change.
As for the Republican's Huckabee's win means even less. He won't finish higher than third in New Hampshire and is no sure bet to win anywhere else. Giuliani and McCain are waiting in the wings.
While I would never be brave enough to post any kind of predictions, especially with sports, I've pondered betting the opposite of yours. The opposite would be a dem other than hillary becoming president? Does Vegas take bets on political races?
Two weeks ago, I would have argued that there was absolutely no chance of Democrat other than Hillary getting the nomination. Now, I am not so sure. The USA Today made a striking point about the images on stage after the Iowa caucuses ended. Obama was flanked by his young wife and his little kids. Hillary stood with white haired Bill and an aging member of his cabinet, Madeline Albright. Who looks more like the future? The agent of change?
So maybe Hill' isn't an inevitable nominee. Either way, I would still lay my money on a Republican president being elected in 2008.
So maybe Hill' isn't an inevitable nominee. Either way, I would still lay my money on a Republican president being elected in 2008.
Well you know, thinking being, with a war on and what not, the American people are going to elect a woman, and a Democrat?? That would be a sea change. In times of grave national security concern, for the last 50 years, the country has favored the Republicans.
Seems like the standard, old-line, patriarchal prejudices against women would make the time of war theme a double whammy against a Hillary candidacy. (The Dems still might select her, but if they do she'll get beat.)
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Seems like the standard, old-line, patriarchal prejudices against women would make the time of war theme a double whammy against a Hillary candidacy. (The Dems still might select her, but if they do she'll get beat.)
