Clarion Content

The Clarion Content is a dedicated and loyal follower of Nate Silver's statistical analysis of elections in his blog the 538.¹ Long time readers find great irony in this, because as a baseball analyst the Clarion Content's editor is likely to be the first one jumping up and down screaming if Mike Trout somehow steals Miguel Cabrerra's Most Valuable Player Award. Silver, the creator of PECOTA, is renown in baseball circles as a statistical guru only slightly below Bill James on pantheon.

Statistics aren't everything. Math isn't religion. It is a language, descriptive, but limited by its own conceits and structures.²

The problem is that the average moron in the media doesn't speak math. In 2008, Silver correctly predicted the Obama vs. McCain results in 49 of 50 states. He predicted every Senate race correctly. In 2010, he did pretty well too, nailing 36 out of 37 gubernatorial races, although missing on some individual House and Senate races.

This year, using his rigorous statistical analysis and as many polls as he can lay hands on, he has been predicting an Obama victory for some time. His model did show Romney making gains after the first debate, but it was from getting beat handily in the Electoral College to getting beat barely. In the weeks since, the model has drifted back up to an 86% chance of Obama winning, with the two most likely outcomes being the President gets 300 electoral votes, rated a 14% chance, and the President gets 330 electoral votes, rated a 17% chance.

Rocket scientists, like MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, laughably conflate polling and statistics to understand the President and Romney each have a 50% chance of winning. Ah, the dim.³

In fact, Silver predicts that Obama will win only 50.6% of the popular vote. But as those of you who are old enough to remember the 2000 Presidential Election know, the popular vote is not the deciding factor for presidential elections in the good ol' U.S. of A. We have this rigamorole known as the Electoral College.⁴

Silver has done the legwork and the math. He is convinced Obama is going to win. One reason he cited as an example on the 538, in twenty-two polls of swing states Friday, not national polls, individual state polls, Obama led in nineteen, two showed a tie and Romney led in one. This is not what one would call a dead heat, regardless of the national aggregate numbers.

Silver is not alone in his quantitative analysis, Deadspin notes, "the criminally underrated Princeton Election Consortium... [which] nailed the electoral vote count in 2004, and missed it in 2008 by just one... [forecasts] Obama's re-election chances at 98%."

Vote! The Clarion Content's article is not a reason, not to vote. It is about math and bias. Please, please, please go vote! North Carolina is going to be razor close for the distribution of its electoral college votes. There are also a bevy of important state races which will effect everything from schools and state taxes, to energy policy and the environment.⁵


Notes
¹The 538 sadly now belongs to the New York Times, meaning we can read it no more than ten times per month.
²Show us past the Godel theorem, "For every consistent formalization of arithmetic, there exist arithmetic truths that are not provable within that formal system." And furthermore, almost all statisticians concede, small sample sizes can yield lots of surprising results, often called "noise." See the Central Limit Theorem.
³Deadspin notes in its article about Silver, just like math class in high school, some of the bullies use Silver's ostensible nerdiness and high-pitched voice to accuse him of one of their greatest sins, homosexuality. Of course, if he is smart and effeminate, he must be queer. Ahhhh, the sophistication of the narrative that comes from certain parts of the Right Wing.
⁴Interestingly, one might wonder if this will bring the Republicans behind a proportional distribution of states' electoral college votes, rather the winner take all model used everywhere but Maine and Nebraska.
⁴The era of fracking in North Carolina is about to begin.

Labels: 2008 presidential election, 2012 presidential election, Politics, Predictions

The Top 5 NBA Free Agents

by: STEPHEN VARNUM

courtesy of: the East Side Perspective

The East Side Perspective, a Clarion Content partner, is an up and coming sports and music website published in Chapel Hill.

For more great articles from the East Side Perspective, check here.


Sleeper Pick: Brandon Roy

Before I count down the top five free agents, I had to put Roy in the mix. Prior to his knees blowing up, along with just about every other part of his body over the past two years, this guy was largely considered to be the one of the best players in the NBA. Heck, even Meta Ron-Ron said he was the hardest player to guard in the NBA, over players like Lebron and Kobe. This guy use to be one of my favorite players, and I expect him to have a GREAT NBA comeback, similar to Grant Hill's comeback.¹




1. Deron Williams, G, Brooklyn Nets:

Clearly the best player in the modest free agent class of 2012. Fortunately for any team named the Nets or the Mavericks, Deron Williams is on the market. Williams is a 3-time All-Star looking to put the pieces back together after getting blindsided by a trade in 2011. A BIG point guard capable of scoring and making plays for others, he's the one true star in this class who is in the prime of his career. He's one of the best point guards in the league and will dramatically increase the win total for either the Nets or Mavs.




2. Eric Gordon, G, New Orleans Hornets:

Gordon sat out a vast majority of the 2011-12 season with a knee injury, but his ability to score and shoot will command a maximum salary offer (or close to it). Sources are saying that Gordon wants to stay with the Hornets, but depending on how draft day goes and if there any block buster trades, I wouldn't be surprised to see this guy go elsewhere. As a fan, I would love to see him in a Celtics uniform, especially if Ray Allen decides to move to another team.    




3. Steve Nash, G, Phoenix Suns:

Nash is the ultimate professional. He says he doesn't judge his career on rings and says that he would love to end his career with the Suns. Nash, however, will at least test the market as an unrestricted free agent, facing a difficult decision: Do I want to remain loyal like a Kobe or Paul Pierce? Unfortunately, he won't win a championship that way, as Suns owner Robert Sarver is committed to running the team into the ground. Or shall I take my talents elsewhere, and join a team ready to make a run at the finals? He's 38 years old, so the decision needs to be made soon.²




4. KG, F, Boston Celtics:

The 36 year-old power forward is a free agent again. The perennial All-Star, Garnett, was moved to the center position as the Celtics were hit with a slew of injuries in 2011-12. He excelled as a result during the regular season and he posted consistent 20 points and 10 rebounds in the playoffs and had Boston within one win of an appearance in the 2012 NBA Finals. The only teams involved with KG will be the Celtics and Father Time.




5. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers:

Free agency couldn't come at a better time for Hibbert, who had a big stage to shine on during Indiana's postseason run after posting career-best numbers (12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 blocks). The guy will probably see lots of digits on his next paycheck, and those digits are well deserved. This guy has proved me wrong and I wasn't sure if he had this type of talent; touche Hibbert, touche.


Honorable Mention: Ray Allen, Javale McGee, Jason Terry, OJ Mayo, Tim Duncan


Notes

¹The editorial staff isn't buying this one. We expect him to have a comeback a lot like Manny Ramirez's comeback for the A's this year. Roy is done.

²Some folks are trying to play the Canadian card, eh? Convinced that in a fit of patriotic fervor Nash will sign with lowly Raptors. The editorial staff thinks there is an equally good chance he signs with the Tottenham Hotspurs.

Labels: Eastside Perspective, NBA, Predictions, sports

NBA Mock Draft 2012: Picks 1-10

courtesy of: the East Side Perspective

As many of you know we have joined forces with the East Side Perspective, an up and coming sports and culture website published in Chapel Hill.

For even more sports articles from the East Side Perspective, check here. For music articles from the East Side Perspective check here.

We will be co-hosting a sports podcast with the co-founder of The Eastside Perspective, Matthew Creatore, this Fall, featuring plenty of special guest appearances.


The NBA Draft is now just hours away and the experts are starting to question, can the NBA's worst teams really alter their franchise by choosing a single draft gem? Every year - no matter the sport - we wonder if just one player can alter the the upcoming season and score a team the magical playoff berth. The teams in the NBA draft top 10 this season mostly are youthful and inexperienced or have lost major talent at some point during the past two seasons; they'll look to rebound tonight night. Here are The Eastside Perspective's projections for this year's NBA Draft.

Pick #1 - New Orleans Hornets - Anthony Davis - Kentucky
Pro - Shot blocking ability
Con - Offensive game (Relied heavily on alley oops and put-backs)




Pick #2 - Charlotte Bobcats - Thomas Robinson - Kansas
Pro - Rebounding Ability, Work Ethic
Con - Size (6' 9")




Pick #3 - Washington Wizards - Bradley Beal - Florida
Pro - Shooting Range
Con - Needs to learn to create his own jump shot via the dribble




Pick #4 - Cleveland Cavaliers - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Kentucky
Pro - Size, Work Ethic, Gets easy shots at the rim, Defense
Con - Shooting, Ball Handling




Pick #5 - Sacramento Kings - Harrison Barnes - North Carolina
Pro - Shooting, Defense
Con - Inconsistency




Pick #6 - Portland Trailblazers - Damian Lillard - Weber State
Pro - Shooting, Scoring, FT Percentage
Con - Poor Ast:TO Ratio vs. poor college competition




Pick #7 - Golden State Warriors - Terrence Jones - Kentucky
Pro - Post Defense, Rebounding, Great Shooter for a big man
Con - Relies on his perimeter game too heavily at times




Pick #8 - Toronto Raptors - Austin Rivers - Duke
Pro - Shooting, Ball Handling, Speed and Agility
Con - Forces the issue at times




Pick #9 - Detroit Pistons - John Henson - North Carolina
Pro - Shot Blocking, 12-foot jump shot
Con - Steady not spectacular, FT Shooting




Pick#10 - New Orleans Hornets - Andre Drummond - UConn
Pro - Athleticism, Height
Con - Bust Potential, Lack of Production

Labels: Eastside Perspective, NBA, Predictions, sports

NBA Mock Draft 2012: Picks 11-30

courtesy of: the East Side Perspective

As many of you know we have joined forces with the East Side Perspective, an up and coming sports and culture website published in Chapel Hill.

For even more sports articles from the East Side Perspective, check here.

These are The Eastside Perspective's projections for this year's NBA Draft.

If you missed Part I of their NBA Mock Draft 2012: Picks 1-10, check it out here.

2012 Draft Wildcard: The HOUSTON ROCKETS' Action Plan...

Pick#11 - Portland Trail Blazers - Tyler Zeller - North Carolina
Pro - Runs the floor, 8-foot turn around jump hook, Help defense
Con - Strength, Uses left hand well




Pick#12 - Milwaukee Bucks - Dion Waiters - Syracuse
Pro - Shooting, Speed, Length
Con - Undersized SG, Passing




Pick#13 - Phoenix Suns - Kendall Marshall - North Carolina
Pro - Passing, Court vision/Awareness
Con - 1-on-1 Defense




Pick#14 - Houston Rockets - Jeremy Lamb - Connecticut
Pro - 15-18 foot jump shot, Extreme upside potential
Con - Strength, undersized




Pick#15 - Philadelphia 76ers - Perry Jones III - Baylor
Pro - Size, Speed, Athleticism, Rebounding
Con - Emotional issues and Leadership abilities, Low-post skills




Pick#16 - Houston Rockets - Meyers Leonard - Illinois
Pro - Size, Speed, Athleticism, Unselfish
Con - Post skills, Inconsistent desire and motor




Pick#17 - Dallas Mavericks - Terrence Ross - Washington
Pro - Athleticism, Passing, Size
Con - Ball-handling, Defense



Pick#18 - Minnesota Timberwolves - Jared Sullinger - Ohio State
Pro - Post Offense, Strength, Rebounding ability
Con - Defense, Speed, Athleticism




Pick#19 - Orlando Magic - Arnett Moultrie - Mississippi State
Pro - Athleticism, Size, Offensive Post Up, Shot Blocking
Con - Defense in the Lane




Pick#20 - Denver Nuggets - Andrew Nicholson - St.Bonaventure
Pro - Jump Shot, Speed, Size
Con - Rebounding




Pick#21 - Boston Celtics - Moe Harkless - St. John's
Pro - Potential, Quick feet defensively
Con - Passing




Pick#22 - Boston Celtics - Royce White - Iowa State
Pro - Rebounding ability, Strength, Speed
Con - Jump Shot, Trouble with the law




Pick#23 - Atlanta Hawks - Tony Wroten - Washington
Pro - Passing, Size, Speed
Con - Jumper




Pick#24 - Cleveland Cavaliers - Quincy Miller - Baylor
Pro - Size, 12-15 foot jump shot
Con - Speed and Strength




Pick#25 - Memphis Grizzlies - Will Barton - Memphis
Pro - Ability to finish around the rim, Shooting from or near the perimeter
Con - Strength




Pick#26 - Indiana Pacers - John Jenkins - Vanderbilt
Pro - Shooting from beyond the perimeter, Brings leadership, Quick release
Con - Size, Defense




Pick#27 - Miami Heat - Festus Ezeli - Vanderbilt
Pro - Post Defense, strength
Con - Speed, Not much upside potential, Difficult name to pronounce




Pick#28 - Oklahoma City Thunder - Evan Fournier - France
Pro - Passing, Ball-handling, Size
Con - Athleticism




Pick#29 - Chicago Bulls - Doron Lamb - Kentucky
Pro - Spot-up shooting
Con - Size, Potential




Pick#30 - Golden State Warriors - Draymond Green - Michigan St.
Pro - Intangibles-game (Somehow it works REALLY well!), Leadership, Rebounding ability
Con - Future potential, Size

Labels: college basketball, NBA, Predictions, sports

The Young Guns vs The Veterans, NBA style
by Clayton Tinkle

special to the Clarion Content
from The Eastside Perspective

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

This year’s conference finals provide us basketball fans with an age old matchup; The Young Guns versus The Veterans. Let's step back, anyone recall the 92’ NCAA tournament? The “young and immature” Fab Five from Michigan vs. the experienced Duke Blue Devils. Grant Hill and Christian Laettner came out on top in a demolition of the Wolverine’s “Young Guns” . There are other examples, but let’s stick to the games at hand.



While both of the semi-final series pertain the same basic matchup, they couldn’t have started any different. The Miami Heat embraced the role of the Young Gun and jumped out two games to none lead over the Veteran Boston Celtics. On the other side of the country, the exact opposite happened. The San Antonio Spurs spoiled the energetic Thunder’s chance of taking an early lead. The Spurs used flawless fundamentals and execution to take a commanding two game lead of their own.

“That’s why they play the game” -Anyone who ever got a prediction wrong.



Using its youth and fast paced tempo, OKC jumped back with three high scoring wins over San Antonio. In both wins Kevin Durant showed why he was the scoring champ as the Thunder scored over a hundred points in both recent wins. On the other hand, Boston used its nitty gritty toughness and veteran leadership to claw back and tie its series with the youthful Heat at two games a piece - both at home.

We've seen both generations can flex their muscles in different ways. However, my final thoughts are that both sets of Young Guns will outlast the Veterans - Youth will prevail in a best of seven series format. As much as I would like to see Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett square off, I think Kevin Durant and LBJ will be better for the game - headlines will be taken and eyes will be all over the Finals.

Both series go six games, with OKC closing out at home and the Heat will win two straight to close out on the road. However, The Celtics could join the Thunder as the only other teams in NBA history to win games 3, 4 and 5 after losing the first two games.

Then again who knows what’s going to happen? It's the playoffs..

Follow @CD_Tink

Labels: Eastside Perspective, NBA, Predictions, sports

Today we bring you a special addition of the Clarion Content's periodic feature, Interesting links and Links of Interest. To see old Interesting Link posts click here and scroll down.

We find and you, the readers, submit good stuff that might not otherwise cross our radar.


Like Dutch here...telling us how he really feels.

First up, a piece from the site Real Clear Politics challenging whether or not liberals and Democrats are prepared to debate their positions this coming election season. The thesis is that they are so cocooned, so hostile and unwilling to give any merit to the other side's thoughts and beliefs that they are unable to muster winning arguments against them in the public forum. It is a fascinating take. It is the underlying premise as to why supreme strategists say, 'read your enemy's writings.'

Next, from the New York Times¹, is an evisceration of the myth that a businessman makes a good president for tough economic times. The examples for their argument may be a bit thin, almost anecdotal, referring to the Roosevelts, Eisenhower and Reagan as great non-businessman presidents, with Herbert Hoover and King George II serving as the examples of businessmen who made lousy presidents. The more compelling critique is their indictment of the foolishness spewing out of Mitt Romney's mouth,

I’d like to have a provision in the Constitution that in addition to the age of the president and the citizenship of the president and the birth place of the president being set by the Constitution, I’d like it also to say that the president has to spend at least three years working in business before he could become president of the United States.²

And you thought, Sarah Palin was a rocket scientist.

Our next article comes from the Economist. Two veteran political analysts, Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute and Thomas Mann of Brookings Institute, argue that partisan Congressional gridlock is even worse than it looks. They say that America’s political parties have become as vitriolic and vehemently adversarial as the parties are in a parliamentary system. Unfortunately while a parliamentary system allows the majority to rule, as the opposition waits and plots for the next election, America’s separation of powers hardly gives one party the power to rule unconstrained. The result is disastrous gridlock surrounding many, many real time problems.

In addition to the carping typical of so many political tomes, Mann and Ornstein do offer some solutions. Sadly, they are very pessimistic about the likely outcomes of the 2012 election. Quoting from the Economist,

They fear that the coming election will neither affirm the existing order nor accomplish sweeping change "in a way that will recreate a functional and legitimate political process". If President Obama is elected he may still be hobbled by a divided Congress, or one in which the Republicans have a majority in both chambers. Even if the Democrats recapture the House and hold the Senate, the Republican minority could continue to use filibusters and other measures to block the majority's business. And even if the Republicans captured the White House and both chambers and embarked on sweeping change, the changes "would come to a country that is deeply divided politically, and more than half of whose citizens would likely strongly oppose these moves."

Finally, a block of three interesting articles highlighting the strong anti-incumbent sentiment still prevalent in this election cycle. First from Fox News, the story of sixteen year Democrat Congressman, Sylvestre Reyes, who lost his primary race in southwest Texas. This second one is not a joke, or if it is, it is a bizarre and foreboding one. 41% of those who voted in the Democratic primary in West Virginia, selected a Texas prison inmate over President Obama. This was probably worse for the Obama re-election bid than "none of the above" giving the president a run for his money in the Kentucky primary. Keith Russell Judd, from his cell in Texarkana, Texas without any organized support, was simply not Obama.

The good news for the White House is that the Republicans are fielding a milquetoast weakling of a candidate. The even better news for President Obama, given the fever pitch of anti-incumbency; the Tea Party and Occupy are dormant not gone, is no viable third party or independent candidate has emerged. It felt to the Clarion Content like this was a year when a Michael Bloomberg or Simon Cowell (jk) could have grabbed the baton and made things interesting. Americans Elect, who spent the last several years organizing and attempting to draft an independent candidate, admitted last month that their efforts have come to naught. No candidate cleared the threshold of required support, not even the darling of rabblerousers everywhere, Ron Paul.

What does this all mean, dear readers? Well you know we are lousy at the predictions business, so we won't hazard a guess at the election's outcome, but we do think voters will be choosing between two choices they are not thrilled by, and turnout will be much lower than in the last presidential election.


Notes
¹Occasionally worthy, though you won't see us going over that pay wall.
²Yes, we believe he was serious, not kidding.

Labels: 2008 presidential election, 2012 presidential election, interesting links, political quips-n-quotes, Politics, Predictions

Wait, what, Facebook sucks?

Like no way. I can't believe it.

All right, extract us from our dreamy Valley persona and perhaps we can believe Facebook stinks, after all we have been writing about the ways they have been screwing their users for years. As the Los Angeles Times notes, "[Facebook has] what is widely regarded as the world's largest cache of personal data — a treasure trove for businesses looking to reach their ideal customers."



Your info is for sale.
Unfortunately for investors in Facebook, the company has not figured out how to make money on all that data it owns. As the Wall Street Journal notes, "[Facebook] revenue fell 6% in the first quarter. Profit fell 32%. [2012]" As any Facebook user can tell you, no one clicks through on the ads. Corporate America, still slowly extracting their heads from their proverbial bums, is just coming to terms with this reality. General Motors recently pulled all of its ads from Facebook, saying it wasn't seeing a return on its investment. A recent AP/CNBC poll found 57% of Facebook users say they never click on ads or other sponsored content and another 26% said they hardly ever click through ads.¹

And when the Facebook posse fishes for ways beyond traditional advertising to exploit its massive network, nearly one billion users, it often ends up running afoul of the law.² For example, Facebook is still trying to settle a lawsuit regarding what it called 'sponsored stories.'

Beginning in 2011, Facebook let brands pay to retransmit users' activities to their friends' pages. So that, if someone clicked the "like" button for a corporate brand, the activity would show up as a "sponsored story" on their Facebook friends' pages. Sued for using its account holders images and likeness for commercial activity without their permission, Facebook is settling out of court without admitting wrong doing reports The Seattle Times.

Facebook's anecdotal popularity could hardly be lower among our peer group. Witness the hue and cry when Facebook bought popular photosharing service Instagram. The instantaneous reaction was, 'that sucks' and 'say goodbye to Instagram' and 'sh*t, how do I take my photos down.' The polling data backs up what we are hearing, the same AP/CNBC poll we cited above found 59% of respondents said that they had little to no trust in Facebook to keep their information private.

Facebook's fastest growing demographic of users is now the least technologically savvy, old people. It is rapidly gaining users in the fifty plus age set. And as we know, nothing makes something 'uncool' to youth than a bunch of old folks digging on it.

Facebook's footprint is far too big for it to go away completely, or even to collapse like MySpace, but it would not surprise the Clarion Content at all to see it lumbering down the dead end paths to irrelevance followed by the likes of once untouchable internet behemoths AOL and Yahoo.

As we have stated many times before, it is our contention that the internet's primary purpose is not simply to be a better sales tool than television.

The historical pattern on the internet³ has been when an organization tries to disguise its intentions, yet its ultimate and evident goal is 'Sell, sell, sell,' users eventually react with distaste, moving on to nimbler, more entertaining, less fiscally obtrusive sites that have likely yet to figure out their own revenue model; see Twitter, Pintrest, Tumblr, et al.

Facebook's huge public offering, the one that valued the company at upwards of $100 billion, marked a beginning all right, the beginning of its decline.⁴⁵


Notes
¹Not a math major, but 83% of your users hardly ever or never click through ads? What are you selling? The Brooklyn Bridge, you don't say...

²We are not referring to its monopolistic practices, although it is blatantly in violation of existing anti-trust laws in America.

³To date the internet has proved itself fairly well able to be lateral in its ability to adapt around and/or subvert existing hierarchies.

⁴They do have nearly a billion users so this fall may be glacial at first, but momentum in the internet age is a brutal leveler this is not the Roman Empire, Facebook's power is far more virtual.

⁵All predictions offered with heaping handfuls of salt.

Labels: economics, Predictions, technology

For those of you, dear readers, who are following the ugly Betty contest that is the Republican Presidential nomination race, we wanted to weigh-in again.


Wet, lame and dangerous is how these three are perceived.¹

Do not believe for a moment that former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum, is going to win the nomination.²

When pigs fly!

The triple loss by bumbling frontrunner, former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri signaled dissatisfaction with his milquetoast campaign rather than a surge for Santorum. This is a race that none of the above would be winning right now. More evidence for that argument appeared this week, when Romney barely eked out a win in Maine³ over Representative Ron Paul.

Santorum's wins and Ron Paul's close calls are signs of the Republican party's overall distaste for the field of candidates. And it is not just the party's elite that don't like the candidates, the rank file, especially Tea Partiers and Evangelicals, are not buying Rommey, who got so twisted up trying to claim the social conservative mantle last week, he ended up calling himself "severely conservative."

That's not exactly in the positive lexicon there, Governor! As many have pointed out "severely" is most often paired with words like "depressed," "ill," and "damaged."

Which would be far out, if the Governor had morphed into a teenage Valley girl. Instead, he, once again, simply sounded foolish. The Clarion Content continues to believe that this year offers the best chance of a brokered convention, and for a last minute candidate coming off the sidelines, that we have seen in generations.

The favorites to emerge, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan or the next Bush king, the lordly regent of the State of Florida, Jeb.

Keep your eyes peeled, if Governor Romney loses Michigan's primary, even the mainstream media's dunderheads will know the race is wide open.




Notes and Jibes
¹In that order, Santorum is all wet, Romney is lame, and Paul is...

²Santorum is simply too socially conservative to win a national election, and the party's elites know it.

³Maine, which we would say borders Governor Romney's home state, except that he is such a carpetbagger, it is hard to declare anywhere his home state, was a "bad" win by less than 200 votes over Paul. He is about to get whomped this week in Michigan where he grew up silver spoon in hand, scion to his father, the governor.

Labels: 2012 presidential election, Politics, Predictions

Wait a minute! Is the Clarion Content mistaken or did Obama just start down a path to lose an un-loseable election?



Is he really running the Al Gore 2000 populism playbook?¹ Against a Republican field that makes former scion, George Bush II, look like a thoughtful, articulate candidate? Against a a Republican field that Senator Bob Dole could have beaten with one arm tied behind his back?

What gives, Mr. President?

Has no one told you that the only way you can run against the Man in this country is with less regulation, not more. The Reagan narrative, "Get the Man out of lives and off of our back" is alive and well, in the Tea Party freshman of Congress and the Ron Paul zeitgeist."²

But the populist left, Mr. President? This country has been tarring and feathering the populist left as lily-livered commies since before Senator Joe McCarthy was a teenager. The last Democrat to win the Presidency with a true people's mandate from the left was Franklin D. Roosevelt.

And there was a depression. Now, while there is economic malaise, and there are worrying signs of deflation in the United States economy, there is no depression.

Absent times that bad, campaigning from the populist left is a surefire recipe for defeat, Mr. President.


Notes
¹ None of this should imply that there are not dangerously high levels of income inequality in America. It is just that a Democrat can't win a national election crowing about it.

²Note that in both these canons the Man is far more likely to refer to the government than big corporations.

Labels: 2012 presidential election, Economy, Politics, Predictions, public protest

The odds have been and continue to be Ron Paul will not win the 2012 Republican nomination for President.



However, his poll numbers in Iowa, where the first delegates will be awarded, have been steadily improving. It is no wonder, as our friends over at the 538 note, he is running some sharp ads.

The 538's guru, Nate Silver, shows however, even if Congressman Paul wins Iowa, the odds of him winning the Republican nomination are slim. He needs a deeply divided race to have a chance. What success by Paul more likely does is one of two things, either: unites the Republicans behind Romney, the "Shoot, we had better close ranks or Ron Paul could actually win" scenario, or, causes a last minute candidate to come off the bench, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, etc., the "Sheesh these folks all suck we had better find somebody else" scenario. The 538 examines both possibilities here.

Either way, more Ron Paul looks to be a win for Obama.

One thing Ron Paul is doing, he is burying the Newt Gingrich candidacy.

The bad news for America, the politicians continue to fiddle whilst the economy immolates.

Labels: 2012 presidential election, Politics, Predictions

The Clarion Content is a dangerous source for predictions. We would almost recommend betting in directly opposition with our thoughts, save for this is what we are indeed thinking. This year we have had time for even less research than we have done in some years past, some sports talk radio, a podcast here or there, Grantland is about the sum total of it. Henceforth, we will only have a sentence or two about most teams, and for some even less.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
We agree with former Super Bowl winning Cowboys QB Troy Aikman that it is put up or shut up time for this core group of players. Gut instinct feel, this team collapses, they break it up and start over with a high draft pick. Last year's start was indicative, not a fluke.

New York Football Giants
We keep hearing how banged up they are on the defensive side of the ball. Eli Manning threw a ton of interceptions last year. This feels like a down year for the G-Men.

Philadelphia Eagles
They have assembled a defense of stars this year. But the offense looks vulnerable, lucky for them the NFC East looks very mediocre this year. Michael Vick has always been fragile. The Eagles wideouts are small and injury prone. Andy Reid is a horrible game manager and an even worse play caller. The Eagles consistent failure to develop a running game will see them come up short of the ultimate prize. (This must all sound so familiar to Donovan.)

Washington Redskins
Well, they got rid of Albert Haynesworth. But aren't they going with Rex Grossman at quarterback? We have never believed in Mike Shannahan.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers
The Super Bowl champs look great. We like Bill Simmons theory that the NFL lockout actually helped ameliorate the typical Super Bowl hangover. The Packers weren't feted the way most champs are. Did it help keep them hungry?

Detroit Lions
Apparently, it was Matt Millen, not ownership after all. The Lions are poised for a breakout season. Ndamukong Suh looks like he could be the defensive MVP. The only question mark is quarterback Matt Stafford.

Chicago Bears
We do not believe in Jay Cutler, we never have. They still have no number one wideout. We like Coach Lovie Smith. Is the defense aging? .500 at best...

Minnesota Vikings
It is just not going to be a happy career for Donovan McNabb... Maybe, maybe if Adrian Peterson stays healthy all year, their season will be less than disastrous.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
They are a chic Super Bowl pick. We like, not love, Matt Ryan. We think Julio Jones will eventually be an asset, but the lockout didn't help him. And what about their cornerbacks? Up to the task? This team takes a step back.

Carolina Panthers
The biggest question facing the Panthers this season is what position Cam Newton will play after the Panthers draft Andrew Luck. Tight-end? The Panthers resigned the stars of their 2-14 team. They still have no #2 wide receiver. We think Duke Blue Devil football wins more games than the Panthers this season. 0-6 in the division seems certain.

New Orleans Saints
Darren Sproles is the perfect Reggie Bush replacement and might even be an upgrade. Drew Brees is a wizard. We will take brains over brawn every day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nobody believes in Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman more than Bill Simmons, not his mom, not his coach... There must be a reason. We haven't seen enough to make up our minds on young Mr. Freeman. The Bucs appear to be the classic case of a team that suddenly faces a harder schedule and backs up. They are in a tough division.

NFC Worst

Arizona Cardinals
Kevin Kolb reminds us of the illustrious Scott Mitchell. Did they get worse defensively? This division is so bad that anything is possible.

San Francisco 49ers
If not for Alex Smith we would pick them to run away with this division. Why are they still sticking with Alex Smith? Andy Dalton would lead this team to a division title. Graham Harrell could probably be plucked from the Packers practice squad and lead this team to a division title. (We are assuming 7 and 9 will be enough again to win the West again.)

Seattle Seahawks
When did they give up on Charlie Whitehurst? Tavaris Jackson couldn't hack it in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson and a good o-line. What is he going to do here?

St. Louis Rams
We are not sold on Sam Bradford. Stephen Jackson is a useful asset. Do they have enough other offensive weapons? Says here no.


Division winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, other
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay and Detroit

Conference Champ: New Orleans


Drew Brees is a winner on and off the field


AFC East

Buffalo Bills
We like quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. They need to find ways to utilize C.J. Spiller. Receiver Steve Johnson has skills too. The Bills are improving in a tough division.

Miami Dolphins
Bad ownership is destabilizing the franchise by undermining the head coach. We don't think Chad Henne is the problem, he might even be okay eventually, but not in this trainwreck of a situation. Brandon Marshall needs the departed Ricky Williams to tutor him in the way of karma.

New England Patriots
Why is everyone so enamoured with Belichek and company signing a bunch of aging defenders? Because the Junior Seau addition worked out so well? If these were the Al Davis led Raiders they would be getting killed for the same additions. Lucky for the New England defense, Tom Brady is on the other side of the ball.

New York Jets
Mark Sanchez is not getting any better. He looks great on a poster, less so on the field. Can the Ryan and the Jets defense carry them to the playoffs again?

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
The last hurrah or the beginning of the other shoe dropping? We like the offense. This is the year the Anquan Boldin signing pays off. Ray Rice is dominant. Ricky Williams is a good change-up The o-line is pretty solid. Joe Flacco is a winner. Can the defense do its part? Is the window still open? Just maybe.

Cincinnati Bengals
We like quarterback Andy Dalton. And the Bengals won't be as bad as people think, oh they'll be bad all right, just not as bad as people think. Andy Dalton wants no part of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. (Although, maybe he should, as it would hasten his departure from the black hole that is Bengal land.)

Cleveland Browns
This is a team headed in the right direction. We like what Colt McCoy showed last year. They have some weapons on offense. But, the top of the division is amongst the NFL's elite. So .500 appears to be a best case scenario.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Everyone is talking about the Ravens aging defense, but the Steelers are actually older. In fact, we heard they are going to start the oldest defense of this millennium. James Harrison had two off-season surgeries. Predator Ben Roethlisberger and the offense will likely drag them into the playoffs, and if they do, anything can happen.

AFC South

Houston Texans
It doesn't seem like even Gary Kubiak could screw this up. No Payton Manning? Could he and the Texans get a bigger gift? If they don't win the title this year, he gets fired and they break the thing up.

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts season changed when Payton Manning got injured. Kerry Collins is a joke. The rest of the roster is less than talented. Even stud defensive ends Mathis and Freeney are less valuable on a team that does not have the lead all the time. We are, however, the last sports page in America to believe in Curtis Painter. In Purdue's Joe Tiller we trust, it says here if Painter gets the keys in time, he leads a late charge for a Wild Card berth that comes up just short.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Well, until they shocked us by cutting David Garrard last week, we were predicting the Jags would win the division. We like head coach Jack Del Rio. He has moxie. Maurice Jones-Drew has enough heart for three men. But what other talent is on the roster? On a team now led by a journeyman quarterback? No playoffs for them.

Tennessee Titans
We cannot believe the Titans were dumb enough not to be able to retain either Vince Young or Jeff Fisher. In this mess of a division, keeping just one of them might have been enough to get the team to the playoffs this season. Then again, maybe it is a better to bottom out and get into the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Titans figure to be about that bad.

AFC West

Denver Broncos
May as well play Tim Tebow, it is not like they have anything else going for them. Maybe Tebow inspires divine intervention on their behalf?? Mile High fans haven't seen back to back teams this bad since the early 70's.

Kansas City Chiefs
This is the year when Matt Cassell shows us why Tyler Thigpen and Matt Leinart have played ahead of him. K.C. got an easy schedule and lots of breaks last year. This team is backing up. We think Jamaal Charles is powerful running back, but they do not have enough weapons around him.

Oakland Raiders
We like Jason Campbell. We have believed in his leadership since his Auburn days. We love the way he throws the ball. The Raiders went 6 and 0 in the division last year. Why did they have to fire Coach Tom Cable and subvert it all? Answer: Al Davis.

San Diego Chargers
Phillip Rivers is a winner. Absent Norv Turnerm, we would be picking this team to the Super Bowl. They have a gaudy array of offensive weapons and a lousy division to beat up on. How will they find a way to lose in the playoffs this year? No idea, but we can't wait to find out.

Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego
Wild Cards: New York Jets and Pittsburgh

Conference Champ: Baltimore Ravens


Ray Rice is a dominant force, with a defense that has one last hurrah left.

The Super Bowl winner?

Says here the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees make it 2 out of 3, beating the Ravens of Baltimore in Ray Lewis's final game.

Labels: NFL, Predictions

We must beware the powerful Clarion Content jinx. We are noted for our ability to make the diametric opposite of what we predict come true. Thus it is always dangerous for the sports editor to predict things we wish will happen, but in this case we have to put it out there, despite the fact it is both our prediction and our desire.



The Boston Red Sox look awfully vulnerable to being caught by the Tampa Bay Rays in the race for the American League Wild Card. While Boston would appear to have a comfortable 7 and 1/2 game lead over Tampa, just last week they were ahead by 11 and 1/2 games. The Sox are increasingly banged up. Star third baseman, Kevin Youkilis has been dinged up all season and was recently put on the disabled list. Prized free agent outfielder Carl Crawford is barely hitting .250 and has a miserable 39 RBIs. The Sox offense is so meek right now, last night's line-up featured rookie Josh Reddick, he of the career 288 at-bats and 9 lifetime homers, hitting 5th. Line-ups that are that thin are more commonly associated with the Rays, than the Sox or Yanks.



However, it is not just the offense of the Red Sox that looks wobbly. The pitching staff has been battered as well, and that, pitching, is not an area either the Rays or the Yanks are vulnerable. The Rays with their pipeline to Durham have a seemingly endless supply of quality young arms. The Yanks have five solid starters and an extra $180 million dollar man, A.J. Burnett. The Red Sox conversely are trying to get by with forty-five year old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, free agent flop John Lackey and castoff Eric Bedard holding down the back end of their rotation.



As their limp start showed, the Red Sox have holes. Those failings maybe exposed the possibility of the kind of epic Red Sox stretch collapse that hearkens back to the days of yore.

Labels: baseball, Predictions, sports

Numbers cruncher extraordinaire, Nate Silver, made quite the statement on his blog, the 538, today, "Anti-incumbent sentiment is probably stronger now than at any point since polling began. We don’t know exactly how that is going to play out, and to some extent we are in uncharted territory."

We had not read anyone saying that this electoral season. We agree. What comes next?

Labels: 2012 presidential election, Politics, Predictions

If two wrongs don't make a right, what to do two rights make? In a practical sense, try to imagine a world where President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner enact a compromise that both cuts entitlement spending and eliminates the Bush II tax cuts for the super rich. Heck, they could even eliminate the alternative minimum tax as part of the same compromise. At that point, all Obama would have to do would be ease off the crackdown against job seeking immigrants, and bring the troops home from Afghanistan and Iraq, and it would be 1995 all over again economically.




A dream? More than likely, knowing Washington, D.C., it is a mirage. The devil is in the details. The Clarion Content favors cuts in entitlement benefits (especially for prescription drugs), gradually raising the minimum age for Social Security benefits, reinstating the estate tax on estates worth more than $5 million, higher marginal tax rates on the highest income brackets, lowering and simplifying corporate taxes, along with a libertarian immigration policy.

In backwards order, no one in Washington D.C. has the guts or the political capital to address immigration policy. Obama would have been far better served to start there rather than with health care policy. Bush II was going to produce a benevolent immigration policy towards Latinos before 9/11. His failure to do so afterward is one of the great tragedies of his administration.

Lowering and simplifying corporate taxes, lots of folks in D.C. claim to support this one, yet somehow it never happens. This is the second biggest factor, after structural adjustment, for the current unemployment malaise. Lowering corporate taxes incentivizes job creation.

Higher marginal taxes on the richest of Richie Rich's and bringing back the estate tax for the very wealthy. Somehow the upper crust and their lobbyists always manage to turn this into a populist issue. At first amazing, the narrative of American capitalism has now absorbed this myth so completely and seen it defended so assiduously that to tax the rich is to attack the very basis of freedom.

Social Security is the 3rd rail and entitlement benefits are the next-door neighbors. Is anyone in D.C., even President Obama, brave enough to touch the 3rd rail of American politics? Has anyone heard from Representative Paul Ryan since he mentioned cutting Social Security and other entitlement benefits?

We know that no politician who falls anywhere on the political spectrum between Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich has the guts to say that Bush II's wars of choice have been colossal wastes that have devoured American blood and treasure, but now are sunk costs. Osama is dead. No one can force Afghanistan to cohere without a totalitarian government.¹ Withdraw already.

But much like the "big" budget deal itself, that is probably just a dream that will disappear into the daily grind of realpolitik.


¹ In Iraq, America has fucked up so badly that the best play now may be to be to keep the troops there lest Iran station its tank divisions on the border of Saudi Arabia. So even though the Clarion has long advocated withdrawal from Iraq, and three, separate, new, nation-states, we may be beginning to lose faith in the viability of that option.

Labels: Central Asia, economics, Middle East, Politics, Predictions, war

An excellent article in the much maligned New York Times this weekend by David Leonhardt defends the case for going to college. He says the anti-college for the masses argument ends up being an elitist one, for me and not for thee. He notes the parallels between this debate and the debate about high school for the masses that occurred at the end of last century. The American cultural decision, high school en masse, has been widely validated, especially when compared to parts of Europe.

More education for all! How can we disagree. Leonhardt quotes a recent study by The Hamilton Project, showing that college tuition has delivered an inflation-adjusted annual return of more than 15%; for the stock market, the historical return is 7%, for real estate, it’s less than 1%.

Read his whole piece here.

Thanks to Lyneka for pointing us this way.

Labels: Predictions, thought

The Clarion Content can't comment on the Europeans leaguers and other global b-ballers who were drafted by NBA franchises the other night in what Bill Simmons says will be remembered as the "Foreigner Draft."



The Clarion Content does have some strong opinions on the players that got drafted, starting with Kyrie Irving. Word out of Duke is that he is a strong character kid, hope so, because it is very tough to get drafted number one overall by the franchise that lost LeBron when you have played less than twenty college basketball games and don't have the body of NFL defensive end. We think Irving becomes a successful pro, with a reasonable NBA career, never quite an all-star, but a nice blend of some of the skills of say Mo Cheeks and Vinny, "Microwave" Johnson. Good distributor, streaky hot shooter, small defender who has to play the point or is a sixth man, a 3rd guard.

We would rate him a the fourth best NBA career arc coming out of this draft. Number one we like Nolan Smith of Duke and now the Portland Trail Blazers. A leader with guts and heart, Smith is a tenacious battler who will win off the dribble and be able to get his own shot, even against much bigger players. He is unselfish to a fault and this will lead him to even greater heights in the NBA than he reached in college.

Number two we like, Derrick Williams. The guy can score. He can play the three or the four in today's NBA. He is the anti-Michael Beasley, who the Clarion Content warned about before he was drafted, Williams is level-headed and a diligent worker. Unfortunately, he got drafted by a team that is schizophrenic. They have Beasley, are run by Kahn, are dangling their coach Kurt Rambis from a meat hook, haven't integrated Ricky Rubio... etc. We do like Kevin Love.

We agree with the Spurs about Kawhi Leonard, whom we rate as the number three NBA career in this draft. Guys who have little help in college don't look as good as they are because of the focus the other team's defense and coaching put into stopping them individually. This same issue applies to another guy who will definitely have a long NBA career, Jimmer Fredette. Other teams keyed on him constantly, built their defensive game plans around stopping him, and the guy still scored with minimal quality help around him. These kind of guys succeed in the pros. Steph Curry anyone? The difficulty is identifying them.

We rate Leonard above Kyrie Irving, Fredette below. Time will tell how good our eyes was.

Top College Draft Prospects 20111

1) Nolan Smith, Duke
2) Derrick Williams, Arizona
3) Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State
4) Kyrie Irving, Duke


Kawhi Leonard

Labels: NBA, Predictions, sports

Rick Crawford (R-AR) and Paul Ryan (R-WI)

The Republican's have yet to come up with a coherent answer to the argument that they prefer tax cuts for the wealthy over medicare cuts for the elderly. Obviously, any even semi-sophisticated analysis will note that tax cuts and medicare are not a zero-sum game. They do not trade-off with each other directly.

The Clarion Content, while willing to see taxes raised for the highest earners and the biggest estates, is just as earnestly interested in seeing the defense budget cut, along with the expenditures on foreign wars and futile nation building exercises.

The Republicans are going to have to develop some kind of narrative for when their electoral opponents accuse them of being willing to bargain off Granny's health care and retirement for their fat cat friends' tax cuts.

As yet, they have been unable to produce one. Read here a transcript of how a freshman Republican Representative from Arkansas, Rick Crawford, fails to handle this question in a town hall meeting with constituents. Representative Crawford starts out with the tack that, well, Medicare is broke anyway, but is unable to stick to this line of reasoning. John Q. Public points out, if Medicare is broke, it is hardly fair to give tax cuts to the richest of the rich in such a moment.

Time for a better answer, time to come up with it soon, or the Republicans will face Congressional trouncing in November of 2012, regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket.

Labels: 2012 presidential election, economics, Politics, Predictions

Say goodbye to the legendary Kacey Jordan aka Courtney Nicole. One woman who ruled the porn business rather than letting it rule her. She has deleted her Twitter feed, which was post-post modern reality genius to the Nth degree. She went out with one last wild two weeks f*cking her fans and devotees at a Nevada prostitution ranch.

Says here she is a star who will be heard from again...

Labels: Pop Culture, Predictions

Derrick Rose and the Bulls will have to battle Hansbrough's Pacers for everything they get.

The NBA's Eastern Conference playoff match-ups have begin to come into focus this week. The Boston Celtics have continued to stumble down the stretch in the wake of the Kendrick Perkins trade. Last night it became official, the Miami Heat locked up the number two seed, ahead of the Celtics, in the Eastern Conference. The Chicago Bulls had already sealed up number one last week.

Strangely enough, the Celtics and Heats reversal of positions may help both teams. The Heat are lucky to avoid a match-up with the Knicks and their two high scoring star forwards. The Heat were the only Eastern Conference contender dumb enough that they might get lured into playing the Knicks and Coach Mike D'Antoni's run and gun style. No such thing will happen for the Knickerbockers against the Celtics, whose defensive will should crush the softies Melo and Amare. Rondo will make Billups look every bit of his fifty years old.

Ironically, the Heat will get a better match-up too. The Sixers cannot keep up with the Heat's offense. The Celtics low scoring ways might have allowed Philly to steal a couple of games with hustle and offensive rebounding. The Heat will simply blow Philly out of the gym on offensive talent.

Surprisingly, the toughest opponent for a Eastern Conference favorite might be the top seeded Chicago Bulls matching up with the eighth seeded Indiana Pacers. As noted in this space, the Pacers have benefited tremendously from a mid-season coaching change. They are playing smashmouth basketball and pounding it into the post with their huge front line. Roy Hibbert is a legitimate NBA center with post moves. Tyler Hansbrough is a never stop grinding, banging, hassling and hustling power forward. Danny Granger, back at his natural small forward position, is silky smooth and a match-up nightmare for most of the league because of his height. It will take Derrick Rose his full arsenal, plus a little bit of offensive help from either Boozer or Gibson, if the young Bulls are to get through the Pacers.

Labels: NBA, Predictions, sports

This coach is in the title game for a second year in a row...

There was a strange dichotomy in the two NCAA Final Four games played last night. In game one, there were two gritty, mid-major teams that few expected to be there. In game two, there were a couple of storied programs with long but sordid histories. It made for a strange rooting dynamic, in game one we felt sad that one of these gallant underdogs had to lose. In game two, we felt perturbed one of those cheaters was going to win.

Who do you root for one when on one bench is a coach who has had to vacate both of his previous two Final Four appearances and on the other side is a coach who the NCAA has cited for multiple violations, including lack of institutional control? Blech.

The narrative was undermined and we predict the television ratings reflect it.

Labels: college basketball, Ethically questionable, NCAA, Predictions, television