Clarion Content

How will the independents break? It is the New Hampshire question today. Up to 40% of New Hampshire's eligible primary voters are independents and thus can vote in either primary. Both Republicans and Democrats have been courting them hard.

On the Republican side, they were seen as the key to John McCain's victory here in 2000. Once upon at time they fueled the Pat Buchanan campaign. Today will they do the same for Texas flat taxer, Ron Paul? And will they do so in large enough numbers to deny Senator McCain, back on the bus, the smashing victory he needs to all but eliminate former governor Romney?

Or will they turn out in big numbers for the Deomcrats and Barack Obama fueling a campaign that has makings of a movement. Obama's camapaign has drawn remarkable reactions, even the most hardened of cynical media critics are waxing about his soaring rhetoric and what his campaign might mean for America.

Both McCain and Obama appear to have the early frontrunners in their respective parties on the ropes. Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa is shooting for 3rd in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani has all but abandoned the contest. Only Romney remains, the governor of the state next door, New Hampshire is a must win for Mitt. On the Democratic side, Hillary, the presumed inevitable candidate has had that aura shaken to the core. She lost Iowa badly, finishing a dismal third. Her advisors are preparing for the worst in New Hampshire. There is talk of campaign re-shuffle, perhaps the firing of long term staffers and strategists.

Better yet for McCain and Obama both seem to have some natural advantages in the next signature primary South Carolina. (Nevada comes first, but nobody notices.) For McCain, South Carolina is a state with lots of retired military and strong support for the war. The technorati act of Romney is unlikely to play well there, although Baptist Minister Huckabee may resurface. (The Clarion will be shocked if Huckabee can ride his populist economics and war critique to the Republican nomination.) As for Obama, South Carolina is supposed to be naturally advantageous because the Democratic party there is heavily black. However, as we have already seen the landscape of race is changing. Dynamics that once mattered may no longer. Obama demonstrated his viability as a candidate and the maturity of America all in one fell swoop winning in 98% white Iowa. Anything can happen.

And perhaps that is the best motto for today in New Hampshire, anything can happen. Almost nothing New Hampshire independents elect to do would shock us. And isn't that the best mirror to reflect what the nation is feeling in this fascinating political year?


note: New Hampshire's independents weren't the only independents in the news as the University of Oklahoma hosted a bipartisan conference of former Republican and Democratic heavyweights registering their support for a new political course. They signed on to a statement asking candidates from both parties to pledge to appoint a bipartisan cabinet. They hosted the best possibility of an independent candidacy New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Things are getting very interesting.

Labels: 2008's President, Politics