Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Be prepared
The way the Clarion reads the sticks, supporters of presidential candidate Barak Obama had best be prepared. Be prepared for a repeat of the Al Gore-George Bush 2000 election. The Clarion is not predicting the election will be so close that it has to go to the Supreme Court to be adjudicated. Surely we hope not, the constitutional stress would be difficult for the republic to bear. The Clarion is predicting that Senator Obama will win the popular vote, but lose to Senator John McCain in the electoral college.
We see Obama winning by blow out margins in the big states California and New York, as well as in New England, New Jersey and Illinois. McCain has a lock on the depopulated plains of the upper Midwest; Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Wyoming. McCain will also take Texas, and the deepest of the deep South, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana. (People tell us Georgia is a McCain lock but we refuse to accept it.) The election will turn on the same states that it has been pivoting around for the last three election cycles, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
The Clarion thinks Obama will do no better than wins in one out four in those states. Likely, taking Michigan, from the Arizona Senator, who, quite honestly warned Michiganers in the primaries, 'Some of those jobs are not coming back.' Obama has done enough that he can squeak out Michigan. However alone it is not sufficient, to win the electoral college vote he must steal some of the Rocky Mountain states that border McCain's home state of Arizona. He might be able to get Colorado and Nevada; Utah seems like a long shot. Even if Obama is able to win all three of those, unless he can grab Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania, he will still need to pick off one state in the South. (Meanwhile, he must hold on to Illinois neighbors, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.)
The Clarion thinks Obama has a good chance to win Virginia and/or North Carolina, and outside shot to swipe Georgia. It will all depend on turnout. A heavy turnout bodes well for the Senator from Illinois.
Here is a link to some of the latest polls.
And here is another link to a fun electoral vote calculator from the LA Times. Enjoy playing around with possible election scenarios yourself.
But Obama supporters, you have been warned, your candidate could win the popular vote (handily) and still lose the election. How will you react?
Labels: 2008's President, Predictions
Comments:
THe Mad Lens predicts an election won by Obama in the House of Representatives. This would occur if Obama wins all the blue states on the 2000 map (incl. Michigan and Pennsylvania, but neither Ohio nor Florida), plus New Hampshire (not too tough) and Nevada. A state which is in play largely because of Yucca Mountain.
Thanks for the link to that electoral calculator, it makes such dime-store prophesying quick and easy!
Thanks for the link to that electoral calculator, it makes such dime-store prophesying quick and easy!
Ooooh, throwing it into the House of Representatives would be so fascinating!
Talk about your tests of the Constitution!
I think Obama can win NH and NV, but in PA I think he is going to get clobbered amongst what they used to call Reagan Democrats. (3or4 to 1)
Talk about your tests of the Constitution!
I think Obama can win NH and NV, but in PA I think he is going to get clobbered amongst what they used to call Reagan Democrats. (3or4 to 1)
Can you makes bets on elections? With Clarion giving McCain the seal of approval it seems like a done deal the other way . . . no? Or, are you giving McCain the seal of approval because the power of your predictions proved so persausive in sports?
My reverse power of prediction has been amazing. Look at the Brewers whom I buried just last week...
The worse that the media hype about the economy gets, the more I say to myself, how can a presidential candidate for the incumbent party possibly win?
On the other hand, the more the world is perceived as in crisis, the harder it is to believe that the American public will vote for a relatively inexperienced, relatively young, black man.
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On the other hand, the more the world is perceived as in crisis, the harder it is to believe that the American public will vote for a relatively inexperienced, relatively young, black man.
