Saturday, October 04, 2008
McCain conceding Michigan
As the Clarion predicted, the Republican candidate for president, Senator John McCain has realized that he is very unlikely to win Michigan's 17 electoral votes and has decided to pull paid campaign aides and television ads from the state. Michigan's troubled economy and McCain's accurate, but divisive comments during the Republican primary, 'that some jobs aren't coming back,' sealed the deal.
However, using the LA Times electoral vote counter, Michigan matters less than the Clarion had assumed. Senator Obama must still win either Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida. (The McCain camp must be doing similar calculations.) If Senator Obama gets swept in those states, Obama must flip a state in the south, either North Carolina or Virgina. We think the Illinois Senator has almost no chance in Florida, and sadly reckon Ohio and Pennsylvania are two of the states where the closeted issue of race will hurt him the most.
Can Senator Obama energize enough new and previously disenfranchised voters to break the Republican stranglehold on the south?
Labels: 2008's President, Politics
Comments:
Electoral assumptions on what the LA Times shows as toss-ups:
Obama wins Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Delaware. And now Michigan. This leaves him up 238 to 202 for McCain, with 98 electoral college votes up for grabs.
Herein is his problem, if McCain goes 3 for 3 in Ohio, PA and Florida, he wins, no matter what happens in the Mountain West or Missouri. Bad news for the Democrats...
Obama wins Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Delaware. And now Michigan. This leaves him up 238 to 202 for McCain, with 98 electoral college votes up for grabs.
Herein is his problem, if McCain goes 3 for 3 in Ohio, PA and Florida, he wins, no matter what happens in the Mountain West or Missouri. Bad news for the Democrats...
Even a lame Kerry won PA, and people in Ohio are working awfully hard. At UC, for instance, they've been running busses all week for students to vote early with great success and the English Department is running a program to get students to register themselves and friends (and one teacher I know is giving extra credit for every form turned in).
Go UC English!
I think voter enthusiasm is at an all time high. Register to vote info and encouragement is everywhere. And I think a high turnout helps Obama.
Concur that Kerry was and is awful, but I think he was easy to perceive as a 'safe' choice. I imagine Obama is perceived as riskier. (Youth and race, of course, play a big role in those kind of subjective judgments. And those kind of prejudices may not be something voters will admit to the pollsters.)
Outside of Philadelphia a lot of Pennsylvania looks and feels like Western New York. Me thinks tough sledding for Obama.
I think voter enthusiasm is at an all time high. Register to vote info and encouragement is everywhere. And I think a high turnout helps Obama.
Concur that Kerry was and is awful, but I think he was easy to perceive as a 'safe' choice. I imagine Obama is perceived as riskier. (Youth and race, of course, play a big role in those kind of subjective judgments. And those kind of prejudices may not be something voters will admit to the pollsters.)
Outside of Philadelphia a lot of Pennsylvania looks and feels like Western New York. Me thinks tough sledding for Obama.
Medicare cuts are a strange way to win Florida:
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/06/mccain-i-m-not-raising-taxes-i-m-cutting-medicare.aspx
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/06/mccain-i-m-not-raising-taxes-i-m-cutting-medicare.aspx
Even the Fox poll has Obama +8 in PA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
and Ohio:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100602373.html?hpid=topnews
Hey we know the value of my predictions. If I predict a McCain sweep in Ohio, PA, FL; Obama should be a lock to go three for three.
My view of the polls is always extremely cautious and skeptical, but even more so when the ugly factor of racial politics is simmering just below the surface.
My view of the polls is always extremely cautious and skeptical, but even more so when the ugly factor of racial politics is simmering just below the surface.
I agree: the polls are not at all reliable. I also agree with Chris Rock: people might say they are going to vote for a black guy, but once they get inside that booth . . .
Finally, there's a flip side to racial aspect: I was canvassing in a predominantly black area of town and more black people certainly say they are registered and going to vote for the first time.
Finally, there's a flip side to racial aspect: I was canvassing in a predominantly black area of town and more black people certainly say they are registered and going to vote for the first time.
Agreed. Turnout will be the difference maker in an Obama win, high youth turnout and high first time voter turnout can only help him.
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