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Saturday, December 12, 2009

NBA at the quarter pole: Part II the West 



Welcome to the second half of our thoughts, comments and notes on the NBA at one quarter of the way through the regular season. See part I about the NBA Leastern Conference here. The NBA Western conference is stacked by comparison, topped by the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.

In our view, as we told you in our NBA preview, we think the Lakers took a step back in replacing Trevor Ariza with Ron Artest. It has been hard to tell with the patty cake schedule they have had so far, playing 17 of their first 21 games at home, where they have gone 15-2. Kobe broke his finger last night in the first quarter and spent the second half throwing in shots left handed. They cannot be discounted because of Bryant and their battle-tested core of Fisher, Odom and Gasol. How much they get out of Bynum and Artest will determine if they can go the distance again. The Clarion Content isn't rooting for them to win the title, and isn't betting on them either, but we surely wouldn't be interested in wagering against them.

The only two teams we could see taking out the Lakers before the finals are from Texas. The first one is an oldie but goodie, the Spurs, if everyone somehow comes through the season healthy, look mighty dangerous. After an awful 4 up and 6 down start they are 7-3 in their last ten. Richard Jefferson is shooting nearly 46% from the field. Tim Duncan is shooting a sweet 55% per. DeJuan Blair is growing up a little every game. He exploded for 18 and 11 boards last week against the Celtics. Antonio McDyess has yet to contribute much, but like Duncan and Ginobili it is simply about surviving the regular season for McDyess. The Spurs have been managing all of their minutes cautiously.

The other Texas team that we think could threaten the Lakers is not the Mavs. It is rather the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have won 5 of 6, including a victory over Lebron and the Cavs. They are playing nearly .600 ball. Laker exile, Trevor Ariza looks like a steal, averaging 17.7 points per game. It should be noted the Clarion Content has loved Ariza since he was a Knick. Without Yao and McGrady, the Rockets are sharing the ball, Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry are tossing in 17.1 and 16.3 a game respectively. Battier continues to play his glue game. They lead the Spurs by a game and trail the Mavs by 2.5 games. Although nobody wants to get caught in the eight spot and have to face the Lakers right out of the gate, it is better than being on the outside looking in on the playoffs.

Denver's inconsistent effort and George Karl's temper make the Nuggets a prime candidate for implosion. It is just a question of when. The Hornets have already blown up. Byron Scott got fired, Chris Paul plays every game pissed. Absent an ownership change the franchise seems doomed. Paul looms as the top free agent candidate for the 2011 off-season. A position he has to prefer to competing with LeBron, D-Wade, Stoudemaire and Bosh this off-season. Portland coming off the Greg Oden disaster will struggle to make the playoffs. The Zombie Sonics led by the brilliance of Durant are up and coming, they have a shot at the eight seed. Memphis and Sacramento tie for the semi-prestigious, "Wow they don't suck as bad as we thought they did" award.

The two Western Conference teams we can't figure out, the Mavs and the Suns. Can we really get sucked into believing in either one of these teams again? Haven't we been down this road in the regular season with them before? Kidd and Nash are thirty-six and thirty-five respectively, they can't possibly hold-up, can they? At this point both squads are playing nearly .700 ball and would be slotted as the #3 and #4 seeds in the West. Nah, we are not buying it just yet.

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