Clarion Content

Can you believe it? The Clarion can't either. But in eight weeks a bunch of middle Americans and New Englanders are going to start picking the American president. Despite the efforts of big states to move their primaries forward, Michigan and Florida, among many others moved their dates up, Iowa and New Hampshire are still going one-two. The big difference is now with much less lag time between them and most all of the other primaries, which this election cycle will follow bang, bang, bang. The thought here is Iowa and New Hampshire become even more important both for their slingshot, momentum effect, as well as, conversely, the terminal consequences of poor results.

The schedule is not actually set yet, as the New Hampshire state legislature is playing chicken, staring down a head on collision with the calendar to preserve its place in line. Already slated in January are Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida. Beyond that is the new Super Tuesday, now with twenty-one states. This is up from ten last time, including biggies like California, New Jersey, and New York. Plus the whole thing has moved itself from from March 2 in the last election cycle, to February 5th in this one. It is being referred to as a quasi-national primary in the media.

That is to say it will be all over, but the shouting, by Valentines Day!! In little more than three and a half months there will be two candidates. To put it in perspective the middle of Summer was three and a half months ago. There is talk in some quarters that it is possible the Republican nomination may not be resolved until March 4th when Ohio, Texas, Massachusetts and Vermont hold their primaries. The Clarion isn't quite buying it, but either way the nominations will be locked up long before it gets warm again in much of the country.

Things that will be true after Iowa and New Hampshire

Candidates that finish fourth or below in both states are done.

If Obama finishes third in either without winning the other, he is done. Ditto for Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.

If Hillary wins both handily, she is the Democratic candidate.

Kudos to Newsweek for featuring the biggest remaining wild card of the 2008 Presidential Election on its cover, the possible independent candidacy of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. According to Newsweek, Bloomberg not only has a billion dollars of his personal fortune set aside to finance a campaign (worth $13 billion reportedly, he's far richer than Ross Perot) but his mother wants him to run.

Laugh line of the week...Barack Obama on how fellow candidates would respond to alien life, under Dennis Kucinich, "They would get driver's licenses. [under] Rudy: ready to shoot them down."

Labels: 2008's President, Politics, Predictions