Thursday, March 27, 2008
Lull over?
The Clarion has been warning for some time that the Bush II Administration's surge has only produced a limited lull in the fighting in Iraq. Unfortunately, many hear this and immediately attack the commentator as being a liberal defeatist or less than a patriot. Obama faced these types of attacks recently when he accurately stated there was no Al Queda presence in Iraq prior to the American invasion. As faithful readers know, the Clarion is a conservative with a small c, whose opposition, from the start, to the Iraq war is rooted in inherent doubts about the utility of aggressive conflict and the state of nation-states. (Not to mention the costs.) We were all warned.
As we have noted in Pakistan and elsewhere(Kenya's recent conflicts leap to mind) the war in Iraq is internecine and rooted in false boundaries drawn on a map. The United States' troops have been able to suppress conflict. However, the underlying and on-going battle is over the spoils of the state. In no way does it break down along lines that can managed by outsiders. This week's most recent fighting underlines that premise.
The fighting this week is mostly between the Shi'ite Sadrists and the Shi'ite majority government. However, the fault lines within Iraq, divide the Sunnis as well, along tribal and clan lines, between the fundamentalists who might support Al-Queda and the more moderately religious, and those from the Sunni areas and tribes with Baathist ties. This secular divide is between central and southern Iraq, as well as the Kurds of central and northern Iraq. The absence of secure state control has divided and redivided the country into smaller and smaller units. Outsiders are not helping. Compromises have not been made politically to bring all factions into government. Division of revenues and power in a way that satisfies all is well nigh impossible.
In the last few days the conflict has exploded disastrously across Iraq. Reports indicate that in parts of Bagdhad police and government checkpoints have disappeared to replaced once again by local irregulars. United States troops have in the last several months slowed the slide of the state into total chaos, but there is nothing to what they are protecting. Iraq is an illusion that has been only held together by force. There is a constant low intensity conflict, that is now bubbling over again, fighting for the levers of power. No amount of American firepower can change the underlying reality of conflict set in play by the mapmakers of generations past.
As we have noted in Pakistan and elsewhere(Kenya's recent conflicts leap to mind) the war in Iraq is internecine and rooted in false boundaries drawn on a map. The United States' troops have been able to suppress conflict. However, the underlying and on-going battle is over the spoils of the state. In no way does it break down along lines that can managed by outsiders. This week's most recent fighting underlines that premise.
The fighting this week is mostly between the Shi'ite Sadrists and the Shi'ite majority government. However, the fault lines within Iraq, divide the Sunnis as well, along tribal and clan lines, between the fundamentalists who might support Al-Queda and the more moderately religious, and those from the Sunni areas and tribes with Baathist ties. This secular divide is between central and southern Iraq, as well as the Kurds of central and northern Iraq. The absence of secure state control has divided and redivided the country into smaller and smaller units. Outsiders are not helping. Compromises have not been made politically to bring all factions into government. Division of revenues and power in a way that satisfies all is well nigh impossible.
In the last few days the conflict has exploded disastrously across Iraq. Reports indicate that in parts of Bagdhad police and government checkpoints have disappeared to replaced once again by local irregulars. United States troops have in the last several months slowed the slide of the state into total chaos, but there is nothing to what they are protecting. Iraq is an illusion that has been only held together by force. There is a constant low intensity conflict, that is now bubbling over again, fighting for the levers of power. No amount of American firepower can change the underlying reality of conflict set in play by the mapmakers of generations past.
Labels: Middle East
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