Clarion Content

The Clarion has always been one to measure inflation by feel, and locally. It is quite less than a scientific method. But yet, like a recession, inflation is something that pervades the Clarion's senses or doesn't. It is either present in the air or illusory. Our measures are the every day things of life. It sounds stunningly obvious. How else would one measure whether or not prices have gone up other than with the every day, most regular, common, things one buys?

Of course, this is just the opposite of the thinking behind the man's most popular inflation measuring stick, which is the "core measure" of the Producer Price Index. This gauge excludes so-called "volatile" food and energy prices. What else is more every day than gas and grub? Is there something else that is as omnipresent in people's lives? Isn't most everything else more discretionary? Nope, not according the United States Labor Department. Nonetheless, the Producer Price Index's "core measure" jumped 1/2 of a percent yesterday, its biggest gain since 2006. Washington's measurement.

Meanwhile, back in Durham, North Carolina, the Clarion went into a local institution, Foster's Market, with $2 in cash, salvaged from an unspeakable place in the hoopty, only to discover the price for a cup of coffee had gone up. $2 no longer gets you a cup of joe at Foster's Market. For some years the price has been $1.50 and with tax $1.61. As of yesterday, it is now $2 flat, which with the government of North Carolina's further tithe is $2.12. Fortunately deep in the recesses of our pockets, we had a handful of change, so coffee was thankfully procured, not denied. After a few sips, when we were able to speak more cogently, we queried the cashier, a long time employee, about the price change. The cashier pointed out that the price rise was across the board.

Foster's Market has raised the price not just on drip coffee, but on cookies, scones, brownies, sandwiches, and most of their menu. And they are not alone. Just down Durham-Chapel Hill Boulevard, the popular local German bakery, (and cafe,) Guglhupf has a sign on the bake case detailing the increases in cost of its basic supplies in recent years. They want to be sure their customers know that sugar, flour and cooking oil prices are shooting through the roof. This is apparently a local manifestation of a national and international trend. The Clarion felt it yesterday, and the Foster's cashier said nearly every customer that had been in commented on it.

And of course, there is gas. Gas is up and down, and up and down, but more up as of late. Around these parts under $3 per gallon hasn't been seen in some time. Faithful readers will recall that we wrote last month in an article about $100 a barrel crude oil, even higher gas prices are coming. $3.75 to $4.25 per gallon for regular unleaded gas will be the national average by early summer. By the, the by, oil was $109.42/barrel yesterday.

We are not aged enough to remember America's lost decade of the 1970's and stagflation, but this old dog smells something in the air, now, today, March 2008, and it isn't just the coffee. Dear readers, your thoughts and perceptions would be welcome. Are you feeling, seeing, smelling inflation in your neck of the woods?

Labels: Durham, Economy, food, Predictions