Sunday, July 27, 2008
Mis-analyzed
The Associated Press today foolishly declared major combat operations over in Iraq. Ludicrous. In months, or maybe even weeks, they will look as wrong as George Bush II's famous announcement on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln.
Wearing rose colored glasses the AP claims that, "Iraq has reached the point where the insurgents, who once controlled whole cities, no longer have the clout to threaten the viability of the central government." They offer no evidence to substantiate this claim other than the lull in violence in recent months. They ignore that the Sunni militias who control large swaths of the country have not been disarmed. Nor have then been brought into the central government's power structure. They are running independent fiefdoms that are not popular with the majority Shi'ites. These state-lets are not viable in even the medium term, even the AP concedes most of their loyalty has been bought with US dollars.
As the Clarion has repeatedly warned the Sunni militias are not the only fault line running through Iraq. The Mahdi Army of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has not been disbanded nor disarmed. Their leadership has passed the order to stand down and cooperate, but only because they envisioned elections taking place in October and their man gaining a share of power from the current American assembled government. Now those elections appear unlikely. It is merely a matter of time with legitimate routes to power frustrated before the Mahdi Army returns to street fighting.
Beyond this there are a panoply Kurd v. central government of Iraq disputes that have yet to be resolved. Kurdish concerns run the gamut from power sharing to oil revenue distribution and even the disposition of major cities and territorial disputes. Unless the central government is willing to grant complete Kurdish autonomy, a civil war is brewing in northern Iraq, too. Like the Sunni militias and Mahdi Army the Kurds have not disarmed.
The AP and the New York Times today, are as wrong as Bush II was on the deck of that aircraft carrier years ago. How much more blood and treasure must America spill? Iraq is not a viable state. Is splitting it into thirds an option? The Clarion is unsure, but the Iraq of today's calm is the eye of the hurricane not the end of the storm.
The appropriate analogy would be Lebanon 1977. A hot civil war temporarily calms without any of the underlying disputes being resolved only to reignite months later into a conflict that is still unresolved today. The calm in Iraq is less then six months old, the fighting (LIC) has been on-going for centuries. The urge of the America news media to jump to overreaching conclusions has more to do with the proclivities born of the 24 hour news cycle than the facts on the ground.
Labels: Middle East, Politics
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The NY Times even concedes in the final paragraphs of its article, "U.S. General Talley said his unit had recently spent $34 million to help reconstruct a major market in Sadr City. But the district council has gotten bogged down in arguments over who has the right to disburse $100 million that Mr. Maliki promised Sadr City after the military operation. The district council was given 90 days to come up with projects. More than 30 days have passed and not one proposal has been submitted, council members said.
“To be honest with you, I find it very slow,” said Haidar al-Abadi, an adviser to Mr. Maliki who said that funds had been held back because militia-affiliated companies had gotten involved. “There’s a danger this slowness could backfire.”
The militia is painting its response on Sadr City walls: “We will be back, after this break.”
“To be honest with you, I find it very slow,” said Haidar al-Abadi, an adviser to Mr. Maliki who said that funds had been held back because militia-affiliated companies had gotten involved. “There’s a danger this slowness could backfire.”
The militia is painting its response on Sadr City walls: “We will be back, after this break.”
Unfortunately, tragic events followed in the wake of this post yesterday.
from wire services...
In Baghdad, at least 28 people are dead after three suicide bombers and a roadside bomb target Shiite pilgrims. In the northern city of Kirkuk, the death toll is 15 after a suicide bomber attacks a rally.
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from wire services...
In Baghdad, at least 28 people are dead after three suicide bombers and a roadside bomb target Shiite pilgrims. In the northern city of Kirkuk, the death toll is 15 after a suicide bomber attacks a rally.
