Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Our annual Baseball Predictions, National League
Those of you, loyal readers, who have seen these predictions over the years know to take them with a boulder of salt. The rest of you have been forewarned. Last year, for instance, we predicted the Yankees would finish 3rd in the A.L. East and out of the playoffs. Nonetheless, we are back and as confident as ever. We are also battling our friends over at the MEP Report in fantasy baseball this year.
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (over 92 wins) ---They may be even better than last year's World Series team with the addition of one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, Roy Halladay. Their offense is top notch.
2. Atlanta Braves (over 86.5 wins) ---Tim Hudson appears fully healthy and ready to return to form. Watch out for rookie phenom Jason Heyward, Manager Bobby Cox, not given to hyperbole, says he has the sweetest swing he has seen since Henry Aaron. Closer Billy Wagner will be a key. Can he return to form?
3. Florida Marlins (over 81 wins) ---Led by shortstop Hanley Ramirez and ace pitcher Josh Johnson the Marlins could make some noise if all of their young talent performs. More likely, they will have some good days and some bad ones. We were surprised when Andrew Miller did not make the starting rotation.
4. New York Mets (under 81) ---Too many questions. Beltran, how much time will he miss with knee surgery? What about Reyes? Will they get any production out of first base? How about the starting pitching beyond Santana? It could get ugly in Queens.
5. Washington Nationals (under 72)---This could have been under 58 and we would have taken it. The Nats fans appear cursed. Steven Strasburg will be along eventually and Ryan Zimmerman is great. In the meantime, enjoy Ovechkin and the Caps deep playoff run.
National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (over 88)---Lucky for them this division is terrible, because outside of Puljos, we are not so impressed. They overpaid for Matt Halliday. The pitching is aging and not so deep.
2. Chicago Cubs (over 83)---Getting rid of Milton Bradley was addition by subtraction. Can catcher Giovanni Soto bounce back? What about Alphonso Soriano? If not, look for Lou Pinella to blow a gasket and be fired by mid-August.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (over 80.5)---They have young talent offensively in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. In the bullpen, however, closer Trevor Hoffman and set-up man LaTroy Hawkins are a combined 135 years old.
4. Cincinnati Reds (under 78)---They are getting a lot of pre-season run as a possible surprise breakout team this year, much like the Kansas City Royals were last year. We all know how that worked out. Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez could be a great rotation next year. This year only two of them were there opening day.
5. Houston Astros (under 78)---The days of the Killer B's have disappeared into the rearview mirror. The Astros have aged rapidly building around Roy Oswalt, lumbering left fielder Carlos Lee, and beat up first baseman Lance Berkman. General Manager Ed Wade is proceeding to burn this franchise to the ground, also adding the volatile chemistry of Brett Myers.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (under 71)---Shooting to break their own record for consecutive losing seasons, seventeen and counting. Forbes assessed them as the least valuable franchise in Major League baseball. They do have some young hitters, in catcher Ryan Doumit and outfielder Andrew McCutchen.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants (over 83)---So much pitching, maybe just enough offense in a weak division. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Barry Zito, who closed the second half of last year fiery hot, could give the Giants trip aces, and that's a pretty good hand, especially if they could come up with a couple of jacks. Pablo Sandoval and veterans Aaron Rowland and Edgar Renteria are reliable, this year we think that is just enough.
2. Colorado Rockies (over 83)---Just the opposite of the Giants here, plenty of offense not enough pitching. They have a great hitting infield with big pluses over average at position at shortstop with Troy Tulowitzki and catcher with Chris Iannetta. Aging first baseman Todd Helton had a comeback year in 2009.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (over 84)---Joe Torre can't get away from the turmoil. The Steinbrenner circus settled down a bit after he left, now the McCourt's divorce is tearing the Dodgers apart. They really haven't been the same since Manny's fifty game suspension. There is a lot of talent here, for some reason this does not feel like a year when it is going to come together.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (under 82)---They were taking a mulligan on this year even before Brandon Webb's injury woes crept back. The Diamondbacks have gaping holes in their rotation even if young Ian Kennedy pitches well.
5. San Diego Padres (under 71)---While Peavy is pitching on the South Side, Padres fans will be enjoying the weather and waiting for football season to start. How about Phillip Rivers? In the meantime, Adrian Gonzalez will hit a few long flies and Pads will struggle to avoid losing 100.
Rockies get the Wild Card.
Phillies win the N.L. Playoffs and head to a 3rd consecutive World Series appearance.
Labels: baseball, Predictions, sports
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