Tuesday, December 27, 2011
However, his poll numbers in Iowa, where the first delegates will be awarded, have been steadily improving. It is no wonder, as our friends over at the 538 note, he is running some sharp ads.
The 538's guru, Nate Silver, shows however, even if Congressman Paul wins Iowa, the odds of him winning the Republican nomination are slim. He needs a deeply divided race to have a chance. What success by Paul more likely does is one of two things, either: unites the Republicans behind Romney, the "Shoot, we had better close ranks or Ron Paul could actually win" scenario, or, causes a last minute candidate to come off the bench, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, etc., the "Sheesh these folks all suck we had better find somebody else" scenario. The 538 examines both possibilities here.
Either way, more Ron Paul looks to be a win for Obama.
One thing Ron Paul is doing, he is burying the Newt Gingrich candidacy.
The bad news for America, the politicians continue to fiddle whilst the economy immolates.
We shall see.